MODEOS model update

Originally designed in 2012 and updated several times, MODEOS is the reference travel model in the Savoyard territory.
The new update, carried out in 2024 on behalf ofAGATE, based on the survey EMC² 2022 and aims to realign the entire modeling system on a coherent calibration horizon.

The work focused on a complete redesign of behavioral components :

• reconstruction of travel chains and mobility groups;
• updating the system of activities, the population and the households;
• recalibration of the model of generation, distribution and modal choice;
• taking into account new transport systems (electrically assisted bicycle, TC + TER).

The methodology integrates advanced optimization techniques, includingusing Python algorithms to reconcile travel chains, and fine modeling of daily periods.
The model was then based on observed data : road counts, bike counts, Synchro and TER traffic surveys.
The results show a very strong correspondence with EMC² 2022 (correlation coefficient = 0.988) and differences less than 10% on the main stations and stops of the territory.

The aim of this update was to modernise a strategic travel simulation tool at the scale of the Chambéry-Aix-les-Bains living area, by adapting it to recent transformations in mobility: development of cycling, teleworking, aging of the population.EXPLAIN sought to strengthen the statistical robustness and spatial precision of the model while making it more ergonomic and scalable for future planning studies, infrastructure projects or environmental assessment.

The new version of MODEOS now allows finely simulate mobility behaviors at the local level, from soft mode to collective transport. The integration of EMC² 2022 guarantees a accurate representation of real practices, while the adjustment to the observed counts reinforces the reliability of the forecasts. The tool becomes a decision support for public actors, able to assess the impact of a change in offer, a bicycle development or a parking policy.It also constitutes a An essential building block for regional modelling, interoperable with the other models developed by Explain.

With this update, Explain consolidates MODEOS's position as a reference in terms of mobility modeling in mountain areas.The precision of the calibration, the consideration of new behaviors and the modularity of the system make it a comprehensive strategic planning tool, at the service of the communities of Savoy and the transition to sustainable mobility.