Prospective study 2040 for the Toulouse agglomeration

The Toulouse metropolis is experiencing a exceptional demographic and economic growth, with a strong construction dynamic and major infrastructure projects, including the third metro line (Toulouse Aerospace Express) And the regional express network (RER Toulouse).
In this context, Tisséo Collectivities wanted to rely on a modelled approach to quantifying the long-term effects of public mobility and urban planning policies.

Explain has implemented an integrated prospective approach, based on the Toulouse multimodal model, which it has enriched and recalibrated to meet new challenges:

1. Updating and extending the multimodal model
   • Integration of new infrastructure projects and urbanization hypotheses in 2040.
   • Update of mobility behaviors based on recent survey and count data.
2. Definition of prospective scenarios
   • Construction of several contrasting scenarios combining demographic dynamics, mobility policies and economic developments.
   • Taking into account energy changes (electrification of the fleet, ZFE restrictions) and service mobility (MaaS, carpooling, cycling).
3. Simulation and impact analysis
   • Assessment of the effects on congestion, CO₂ emissions, modal share and travel times.
   • Identification of sensitive areas in terms of accessibility and network load.
4. Summary and strategic recommendations
   • Prioritization of the most effective levers of action according to the scenarios.
   • Elaboration of a Balanced scorecard to guide metropolitan planning.

The study made it possible to articulate the challenges of mobility, energy and urban form in the same analytical framework, reinforcing coherence between public policies.

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The main objective was to project and objectify the impacts of long-term mobility policies, in a context of strong demographic and energy uncertainty.
Explain aimed to:

• Simulate the combined effects of urban growth and new transport networks ;
• Identify the most relevant levers of action to reduce congestion and emissions;
• Help Tisséo to prioritize your investments in a logic of efficiency and sustainability;
• Provide prospective indicators exploitable by policy makers.

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The study allowed Tisséo Collectivities to have a clear and quantified vision of the future of metropolitan mobility, by 2040.The enriched model is now a strategic decision support tool, which can be used to evaluate future projects or adjust the trajectory of public policies. Thanks to Explain's expertise, foresight has been transformed into a concrete tool for managing urban and environmental transitions.

This mission illustrates the ability toExplain to mobilize modeling as strategic foresight tool, linking urban foresight, energy transition and mobility planning. The study conducted for Tisséo Collectivities allowed to put today's choices into perspective with tomorrow's mobilities, in an informed and scientifically based approach.